Retail Sales (MoM) (UK)

Event Date: Friday, August 18, 2023
Event Time: 06:00 CET

Retail Sales to Turn Negative in July

Updated Sunday, August 13, 2023
Retail sales have been expected to decline every month this year, but they have only come in negative once, in May. In January, they were expected to have increased by 0.2%, but instead they increased by 1.0%. In February, sales were expected to turn negative again, but beat expectations growing by 0.4% instead, which means that the volatile trend might be over. In March, sales were expected to decline again, this time by 0.3%, but they jumped 1.1% higher, while in April they remained flat at 0.0%, although they were expected to show a 0.3% decline. But, that was revised lower last month to -0.1%. In May, sales declined by 0.5%, which means two consecutive declines. But, they jumped 1.0% higher in June, so perhaps retail sales are back to normal. In July, sales were expected to decline by 0.3% again but they came in positive, but they turned negative and declined by 0.2% in August. In September they were expected to decline by 0.1% again but they remained flat that month. In October, sales were expected to turn positive and increase by 0.2%, but declined by 0.1% and again by 0.6% in November. Although, sales were expected to turn positive in December and increase by 0.8%, but they fell by 0.6% again. Although, we saw a 0.9% jump in January after the UK elections. But, they turned negative in February again, declining by 0.3%. So, things were pretty bad even without coronavirus and in March we saw a 5.1% decline, which got bigger in April at -18.1%. Although, sales jumped by 12% in May and by 13.9% in June. But the pace slowed to 3.6% in July and cooled off again to 0.8% in August. In September we saw a 1.5% jump and they increased again by 1.2% in October, but declined by 3.8% in November as the UK went into new lockdowns. Although they increased by 0.3% in December. Last year sales have been mostly negative but are expected to turn positive and increase by 1.1% in January. They have been turning on and off and declined by 1.6% in August Since September they have been mostly negative but are expected to show a 0.5% increase in December. Please follow us for live coverage of this event by experienced analysts. 

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About Retail Sales (MoM) (UK)
The UK retail sales report is the primary indicator of consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up the majority of the economic activity in the UK. This data is released on a monthly basis, 20 days after the month ends. The source of the report is the UK Office for National Statistics. Retail sales data represents the total volume of sales, adjusted according to inflation. It is measured as a change in the percentage of sales compared to the previous month. A positive retail sales number shows that the UK economy is in a good shape. It means that business revenue and tax revenue will improve in the near term.
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