A Stunning 4,056 Pips Profit in 365 Days – 2015 Yearly Review

2015 is in the past and 2016 is already in full swing. We have seen almost everything in the forex textbook happen this year. So we have gained another year of experience. We had 11 successful months out of 12 and seen 4,056 pips of profit, but speaking from a market analyst perspective – it hasn´t been easy. Although, trading forex is never an easy job and there have been some events this year which have driven the market crazy with volatility. I have even lost an account during the massive drop in EUR/CHF which occurred after the SNB peg removal and caused Alpari UK (where my account was located) to bankrupt. But that´s what happens when you put your trust in the Central Banks. Even so, we had a very profitable year, having lost in only one month. We have also published many forex related articles and trading strategies this year, in the hopes that our readers could benefit from this knowledge in the future.

Click here to view the full forex trading signals report for 2015 >>   

The US Dollar was the strongest currency of 2015

Forex Signals

2015 was top notch regarding the performance of our forex signals. The volatility was on the low to middle spectrum, but increased dramatically this year; we decided to increase the take profit and stop loss targets of our forex signals for both long and short-term signals. And the results of this decision have been more than satisfactory. From January to December 2015, we issued 1,115 signals which yielded 4,056 pips profit. Most of these signals (88 to be precise) were long-term and accounted for 616 pips, while the short-term signals brought us 3440 pips. We ended up with negative results on just three pairs: GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and EUR/CHF. This was due in part to the SNB intervention in January. But the losses from these pairs were minimal compared to the positive results from the other 10 pairs, as you can see on the results table for each forex pair.

Results for each forex pair. Green indicates a winning pair, Red indicates a losing pair.

As you can see from the above table, EUR/USD was the most traded pair this year, and the 343 forex signals from this pair brought us the best results. After that came AUD/USD, with 109 forex signals and 1,019 pips. USD/CAD came third with 84 signals and 891 pips. NZD/USD has been the fourth best pair with 92 signals, followed closely by USD/JPY with 122 signals and 491 pairs. We had positive results from other pairs such as EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, USD/CHF, EUR/AUD etc., all of which contributed to the final total profit. We always recommend that you don´t risk too much of your account per trade – so 10 or 20 times leverage would be more than enough. If you translate the pip profit we made this year into a percentage of your account it would be:   

10 x Leverage means 1 pip = 0.1% of the account > 4056 pips x 0.1% = 405% > $1,000 deposit x 470% = $4,056

20 x Leverage means 1 pip = 0.2% of the account > 4056 pips x 0.2% = 811% > $1,000 deposit x 941% = $8,112

Monthly performance in 2015

Our progress in 2015

Our only losing month was in April. During that month, the US Dollar lost more than 12 cents against most majors, but particularly against the Euro. After nearly a year of a 35 cent downtrend in EUR/USD, a sudden 12 cent jump in a single month came as a surprise and it´s unpredictable. We got caught up in that massive USD short squeeze, so that was the only month that ended up in the red. All other months have been profitable for us… we even managed to close in green when the SNB removed the peg and destroyed the market in January. If you’re having trouble remembering all of the year’s upsets, they included: the Chinese stock exchange suffering a mini-crash in August, the ECB disappointing the market, and the FED hiking the interest rates for the first time in eight years in December. We issued 1,115 signals in 2015 with only 276 of these losing. This gives us a win/loss ratio of 75:25 for 2016. Below you can find a table of the results for every month.

Profit/loss for each month

The big events of the year

The ECB was the center of attention in 2015. They had promised in May to begin a large QE program from January 2015, which they did. EUR/USD closed that year around 1.20 and declined to the 1.0450s after the start of the QE, but that´s still smaller than the 20 cent downwards shift witnessed in 2014. As you know, expectations often have a bigger impact in forex than the actual event. On January 22nd this major event took place, but in all actuality the biggest changer of the year in forex took place about a week earlier, when the SNB removed the EUR/CHF cap at 1.20. Everything went haywire: EUR/CHF fell off a 45 cent cliff (yes, 4,500 pips) and USD/CHF declined about 40 cents… all of this in a matter of seconds. Many traders had accounts with brokers that didn’t guarantee stop losses, and they lost their accounts and/or ended up in debt. Big brokers with huge debts even declared bankruptcy (such as Alpri UK). Things slowly stabilized in the following weeks, but the forex world shall never forget that one day. Another big event worth mentioning was the mini market crash of the Chinese stock exchange in late August. The Shanghai Composite lost about a third of its value and it instilled the fear of another global financial crisis, like the one in 2008. USD/JPY had already lost about 400 pips the previous week and it lost another 600 pips that day. However, the waters eventually calmed but it was enough to scare off the FED and postpone the rate hike they had promised for September.

On the 22nd of October, the ECB president Draghi – well known for knocking the Euro down every time he hits the wires – promised an increase of the monthly purchases for the QE program and another cut of the deposit rates, since the program was not having the desired effect on the European economy. The Euro declined about 10 cents in the next two months to around the 1.0520s, but we now know that it wasn’t a true promise, because in December the ECB only cut the deposit rates by 0.10% from -0.20% to -0.30%, and the extra QE was postponed for September 2016 instead of starting immediately. Then the Euro rallied for about 500 pips, making it the first time that Draghi sent the Euro up. Two weeks later, the FED closed the year with the first rate hike in eight years when he increased the interest rates from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.50%. I hope that the world economy improves further this year and the interest rates start to head up to normal levels, because with the interest rates being close to zero for such a long time in most countries the public gets the false impression that these are the normal rates. They sometimes will over-leverage themselves, taking up mortgages and other debt above their paying capacity and when the rates go up they default on the debt which altogether could set off another financial crisis.

Preview of 2016

So what is expected to happen this year? Many financial analysts and economists argue that the main theme will be the Central Banks and their divergent monetary policies (as well as petrol). We witnessed the dramatic decline in the price of petrol last year and, at the moment, we are seeing a petrol war going on between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Both of these countries are competing for market share and Saudi Arabia just gave a discount of $0.60 per barrel to the Northwest EU countries and $0.20 to the Mediterranean EU countries. Add Russia to this petrol market share war and we might see petrol get to $20 per barrel in 2016 or even lower. The world economy isn´t exactly booming so the demand will remain weak. Obviously, the Canadian Dollar will be hit the hardest, as we have already seen from 2015. It is above 1.40, which is the high of more than 12 years and it will extend further up if oil continues to slide. So, that´s our two cents about oil and CAD, but what are the other financial analysts saying about other currencies?

GBP

According to Deutsche Bank and Martin Armstrong of the Armstrong Economics, the British Pound will be very vulnerable especially in relation to the US Dollar. Personally, I only agree to the second part of this forecast. They see the fiscal contraction and the exit of Britain from the EU (Brexit) as the biggest threats to the Pound and think that 1.35 will not be able to hold in GBP/USD. The British economy is doing fairly well and the BOE will soon start hiking rates, so my thoughts are that the GBP will be vulnerable only against the USD and might even outperform other majors.

Euro

The same bank thinks that the Euro will remain dovish, particularly against the US Dollar. The European fundamentals are not great and the extra stimulus QE plan from the ECB will send EUR/USD to 0.95 by the end of the year. In addition, the low inflation in the Eurozone will remain at these levels for some time. The continuous decline in the price of oil and the discount that Iran and the Saudis are applying for the EU countries won´t make things an better. So, it is very possible to see us reach 0.95.  

Yen

Deutsche Bank sees the Japanese Yen as outperforming most of the majors except the US Dollar. They see the USD as the biggest winner in 2016 once again, but during the retracement of the USD uptrend they think that it will be the Yen which will benefit most during these retraces – translating into gains from other JPY crosses. They see YSD/JPY to a maximum of 130 this year. Tohru Sasaki of JPMorgan thinks that USD/JPY will end 2016 at 110, but he was wrong about this pair last year, so our trust is lacking?

To wrap up, most financial analysts see the US Dollar as the strongest currency in 2016 and we agree to a certain extent. But as we have often said, you never know in forex. That´s why we will be here with you throughout the year to guide you, and if the tide in the market shifts then we will adapt to that. So, another year gone by and we are a year older and wiser. We had a great year in 2015 with just over 4,000 pips and hope to have another great year in 2016.

Click here to view the full forex trading signals report for 2015 >>   

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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