The GDP Figures All Around – April 28th Morning Brief
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
Last night, while looking at the trading signals and opportunities which we shared during the month, I noticed that we've done exceptionally well. However, it's not over yet, as the last trading day of April has several more opportunities to offer us.
Thursday remained a busy day, full of economic releases, particularly from the global central banks such as Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank. However, for those who actually missed the updates and are wondering what's going on in the market, please refer to our earlier update Forex Headlines – Wrapping Up The Trading Day for a full recap.
Major Economic Events To Watch Today
Today seems to be a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) day. In addition, nearly all the economies are likely to release a major economic event. In global markets, the GDP is considered one of the most significant indicators in measuring the economic health of the country.
- Advance GDP q/q (13:30)
- Advance GDP Price Index q/q (13:30)
- Employment Cost Index q/q (13:30)
- Chicago PMI (14:45)
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (15:00)
- FOMC Member Brainard Speaks (18:15)
- FOMC Member Harker Speaks (19:30)
- German Retail Sales m/m (7:00)
- Spanish Flash GDP q/q (8:00)
- M3 Money Supply y/y (9:00)
- CPI Flash Estimate y/y (10:00)
- Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (10:00)
- KOF Economic Barometer (8:00)
- SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks (9:00)
- Prelim GDP q/q (9:30)
- GDP m/m (13:30)
- RMPI m/m (13:30)
Gold (XAU/USD) – The Safe Haven Asset
The yellow metal Gold has traded precisely as predicted in our report Gold Updates – What’s New In The Market Now? The Gold remained supported by the weaker dollar. One of the major reasons for a weaker dollar was the trade conflict between Canada and Mexico with the United States, surrounding NAFTA.
As we know, the Gold has a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar. Hence, the Gold prices got another support upon the release of unfavorable results for the durable goods orders from the United States. However, investors are likely to watch the U.S. fiscal developments as well as the high impact economic events throughout the day.
Let's take a look at the technical side of the market.
Gold – Descending Triangle Pattern In Hourly Chart
Technical Outlook – Intraday
In the Gold's hourly chart, the descending triangle pattern is capturing my attention. Let me add that descending triangle patterns are meant to break downward. At the moment, the same pattern is extending a significant support at $1259/60, along with a trend line resistance at $1265.
Investors are still confused over the medium term trend from the Gold and are counting on the fundamentals to determine further sentiments. We can see the investors' indecision in the charts, for instance, the prices are consolidating above and below 50 periods EMA along with the RSI near 50.
Well, nothing to worry about, as this is happening before the high impact news. Personally, I'm expecting a breakout in the New York session, only if the U.S economy surprises us with dramatic changes in the Advance GDP, Chicago PMI, and UoM Consumer Sentiment.
Lastly, the breakage above $1267 is likely to lead the market towards $1270 and $1277. Whereas, the downside breakage will give us a clear sell until $1257 and $1254.
Forex Trading Signal
Trader's we can still enjoy the choppy trading scenario by having a sell position of the upper range of $1267 with a take profit at $1263 and a buying position on lower range $1259/60 with a take profit $1265. But better be careful as we can have breakouts today after the major releases.