Forex Signals Brief August 2nd- Quiet before the Storm, ADP Non-farm Ahead
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
We kicked off the new month with four take profits in a row on gold, Nikkei, NZD/USD and USD/JPY and one trade at stop AUD/USD. Exciting, isn't it? Today, the market is likely to remain highly volatile therefore, I'm looking for more opportunities. Let's see what opportunities lie ahead!
Top Events To Watch Out Today
EUR – The Spanish Employment Ministry is due to release Spanish Unemployment Change at 7:00 (GMT) with a slightly negative forecast of -66.5K, compared with the previous figure of -98.3K. The Spanish Unemployment Change shows the change in the number of unemployed people over the previous month.
Since the figure represents only the Spanish economy, it usually doesn't impact the Euro heavily.
GBP – Construction PMI is due at 8:30 (GMT) and is expected to show a drop from the previous figure of 54.8 to 54.3 (forecast). Construction PMI is a leading indicator of economic health – businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
USD – The Automatic Data Processing, Inc. will be releasing the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:15 (GMT). The forecast is a figure of 187K better than the previous 158K. The ADP figure is mostly correlated with the Non-farm payroll and it's often called advance NFP. The positive figure will support the bullish dollar sentiment until the release of US labor market figures this Friday.
USD – Crude Oil Inventories are one of the most important events for trading the Crude Oil & Canadian currency. We need to keep an eye on it when it is released at 14:30 (GMT). It is forecasted to show a draw of -3.2M. For tips on how to trade the news, make sure to check out FX Leaders News Trading Strategy article.
EUR/USD – Bullish Channel In Play
The single currency Euro is supported due to unfavorable fundamentals from the United States, diminishing the demand for the major currency dollar.
The US ISM manufacturing index for July sank to 56.3 from 57.8 (previous). It was also lower than the expectation of 56.5. In addition, the new orders also fell from 63.5 to 60.4. That's another reason why the Greenback traded lower yesterday.
On the other hand, the GDP of the Eurozone held no surprises, it remained in line with the forecasts of 0.6% gained for the second quarter. I'm not sure if someone noticed, but the first-quarter GDP was revised up to 0.6% from 0.5% previously.
Seeing as the fundamental figures are working in our favor, let's take a look at the technical view of the market.
EUR/USD is holding above a below a major resistance of $1.1840 and the immediate support is at $1.1775. Overall, the 50- periods EMA is supporting the pair's bullish momentum. Interestingly, the Stochastic which was trading in the overbought region has now reached to oversold. This means, the market is again ready to take a buy.
EUR/USD – 2-Hour Chart – Bullish Channel
The crucial level is $1.1800 as the EUR/USD has the potential to stay bullish with a target of $1.1880. On the other hand, breakage of $1.1800 will lead the pair towards $1.1765, the previous double top resistance becomes support level.
EUR/USD – Key Trading Levels
EUR/USD Trading Plan
I'm looking stay in buying only at $1.1800 with a target of $1.1845 and $1.1880. Below this, I will be happy to sell for $1.1765. Good luck traders, keep following for updates!