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Safe Haven Trading: USD/CHF Key Levels

Over the past few weeks, the term “safe-haven” has been a buzzword among traders and investors worldwide. International acts of terror and geopolitical tensions have fueled widespread uncertainty. Nobody knows exactly what the future holds, but smart individuals insulate the trading account against the unknown.


Aside from gold, the Swissie is one of the most time-honored safe-havens available. So, how do we trade it?


USD/CHF Technical Outlook: Possible Trades On The Horizon

Currently, the USD/CHF is trading quietly, in a consolidation phase.

USD/CHF DailyUSD/CHF Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe you can see that we are in a tight pattern, trading sideways. A few elements to be aware of:

  • 13 Day SMA is an area of contention

  • Pending crossover of the Bollinger Band MP and SMA signals this market possibly moving directionally.

The weekly timeframe gives us a bit more to go on:

USD/CHF WeeklyUSD/CHF Weekly Chart

The weekly chart shows the degree of compression more clearly. Last week was an inside week, with a test of the previous week’s extremes. Overall, price failed to rally north of the 38-50% retracement range of the intermediate-term wave. This is an overall bearish sign.

Bottom line: Fundamentals typically drive the Swissie, so for now I am in study mode. Tomorrow’s U.S. Housing Price index may give us the fuel to break out of this consolidation. Rest assured, this market will move and bring key areas into play.

A scalp play beneath last week’s low is a possible trade, but likely not worth the risk. A much better trade will become evident in the coming sessions.

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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