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Forex Signals Brief for September 25th: USD & Elections to Set the Tone

Welcome to another big week guys,

Last week was centered around the FOMC and rightfully so. It appears the Fed is keen to move forward with some rate hikes and that means the USD is well and truly back in play. This week we might just get some more follow through as traders start thinking about what the US economy is going to look like going forward.

At the same time, North Korea continues to hang around. There’s been a lot of interest in gold in recent times because of its safe-haven status. It was a good trade on the way up as it looked like the US and North Korea were ready to start firing at each other. However, things have cooled and so to have the safe-havens.

Finally, it's been a weekend of elections. Both Germany and New Zealand have gone to the polls and it looks like the incumbents are set to remain. Markets don’t like change however there’s still a fair degree of uncertainty around as the final results are close and the current governments didn’t perform all that strongly.

Let’s hope for another big week with plenty of opportunities.


Top Economic Events

EUR – German ifo Business Climate Index is out at 8:00 GMT and analysts are predicting a slight increase over the previous period.

EUR – Introductory statement by ECB President Mario Draghi at the ECON Hearing at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium at 13:00 GMT.


EUR/USD – Looking to Profit From Uncertainty

With the German elections playing out, I’ve been looking for some weakness. Overall I’m bullish on the EUR/USD, however in the short term if we have some uncertainty on the exact make-up of the Government, then we might be able to work a better price.



EUR/USD – 240min Chart


Key Levels











EUR/USD – Trading Plan

The 1.1850 level is the longer term one that I’m looking to use as a buy. We might be able to get a test of that with a weaker EUR of if the USD comes out firing on Monday.


Gold – Downtrending

To me, it looks like gold has topped out in the short term. We’ve run up on the back of North Korean tensions, however, it might be a bit of a case of the boy who cried wolf and as such gold prices are starting to reflect it.



Gold – 240min Chart


Key Levels











Gold – Trading Plan

I’ll be looking to sell on a bounce to 1298 and use 1300 as a key resistance level in the short term.


I’m expecting an interesting week and there should be some strong directional moves. Keep an eye on our signals for some great trading ideas from our top analysts.

Good trading guys!


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Rowan Crosby
Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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