More FED Fallout: Macro Levels For The EUR/USD

Posted Tuesday, September 26, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

The EUR/USD has continued its freefall today, posting back-to-back trend days down. In yesterday’s market update, I had outlined a spike-to-spike 62% retracement as a robust support level. It proved to be invalid as the USD continues to recover.

Finding relevant support levels on the daily and intraday time frames is proving to be a challenge in this market. Let’s expand the picture to the weekly chart and identify some technicals using a multiple time frame analytical approach.

EUR/USD Weekly

EUR/USD, Weekly Chart


It can be difficult to keep our objectivity when markets move directionally in the short-term. A look at the EUR/USD weekly chart gives us a broader perspective of where this market is for the year:

  • Trade is still firmly above the 38% retracement level of the yearly range at 1.1422. Until this level is taken out, the EUR/USD is in bullish territory.

  • The Bollinger MP and Weekly SMA are running at a near parallel. This puts the recent correction into perspective. Until we some convergence, long-term sentiment is unchanged.

  • August’s spike low of 1.1662 will bolster participation. From a macro perspective, I look for buyers to step in and defend the trend from this level.

Bottom Line: Fundamental traders have firm control of this market. In the wake of the FED’s actions last week, bearish participation has shown to be the new rule. As my colleague Skerdian discussed earlier, today’s comments from Yellen are likely to be market movers.

It is possible that Janet Yellen may shake up the current short-term trend facing the EUR/USD at 12:45 PM EST. If that is the case, stay tuned to FX Leaders for analysis and trade ideas addressing how to profit from more FED fallout.

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