EUR/USD Long Trade Setup: Durable Goods Are Out
Shain Vernier • 2 min read
The U.S. Census Bureau has released its Durable Goods statistics. Not a whole lot of surprises in this batch of numbers, but some short-term volatility has become evident across the majors. As my colleagues Skerdian and Arslan have covered, the EUR/USD is primed for a long trade.
Durable Goods: The Hard Data
Durable Goods is an interesting metric. It measures expenditures on items expected to last three years or more. Refrigerators, ovens, and washing machines are a few examples of these types of goods. A separate measure excluding automobiles is included for a comprehensive view of consumer activity.
Event Previous Projected Actual
Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (August) 0.8% 0.2% 0.2%
Durable Goods Orders (August) -6.8% 1.0% 1.7%
This set of numbers shows the impact that the purchase of automobiles has on the validity of the statistic. Without autos, the number is relatively flat. With autos, we see a major jump over the previous release.
Both statistics are positive for the USD, with automobile stocks poised to jump on the U.S. session cash open.
EUR/USD: Long Trade
No matter what your entry point is, there is likely to be a bullish retracement from the EUR/USD in the near future.
EUR/USD, Weekly Chart.
Not much has changed from the macro perspective facing the EUR/USD. We are in the midst of a three-session sell-off, prompted by last week’s U.S. Federal Reserve announcements. Below is the scenario for today’s long trade:
Long entry from 1.1695
Stop loss under August’s low of 1.1662
1:1 R/R, with a take profit around 1.1730
Bottom Line: Today’s U.S. economic calendar is filled with upcoming data releases. They should act as a catalyst, driving price to our entry. Price action below 1.1700 should bolster participation and give us a concrete stop out upon today’s close.
As always, trade smart and check back with FX Leaders throughout the trading day!