EUR/USD Long Trade Setup: Durable Goods Are Out

Posted Wednesday, September 27, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The U.S. Census Bureau has released its Durable Goods statistics. Not a whole lot of surprises in this batch of numbers, but some short-term volatility has become evident across the majors. As my colleagues Skerdian and Arslan have covered, the EUR/USD is primed for a long trade.


Durable Goods: The Hard Data

Durable Goods is an interesting metric. It measures expenditures on items expected to last three years or more. Refrigerators, ovens, and washing machines are a few examples of these types of goods. A separate measure excluding automobiles is included for a comprehensive view of consumer activity.


Event                                                                        Previous                Projected            Actual

Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation (August)      0.8%                      0.2%                 0.2%

Durable Goods Orders (August)                                 -6.8%                       1.0%                 1.7%

This set of numbers shows the impact that the purchase of automobiles has on the validity of the statistic. Without autos, the number is relatively flat. With autos, we see a major jump over the previous release.

Both statistics are positive for the USD, with automobile stocks poised to jump on the U.S. session cash open.


EUR/USD: Long Trade

No matter what your entry point is, there is likely to be a bullish retracement from the EUR/USD in the near future.

EUR/USD Weekly ChartEUR/USD, Weekly Chart.

Not much has changed from the macro perspective facing the EUR/USD. We are in the midst of a three-session sell-off, prompted by last week’s U.S. Federal Reserve announcements. Below is the scenario for today’s long trade:

  • Long entry from 1.1695

  • Stop loss under August’s low of 1.1662

  • 1:1 R/R, with a take profit around 1.1730

Bottom Line: Today’s U.S. economic calendar is filled with upcoming data releases. They should act as a catalyst, driving price to our entry. Price action below 1.1700 should bolster participation and give us a concrete stop out upon today’s close.

As always, trade smart and check back with FX Leaders throughout the trading day!

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