Forex Signals Brief for September 29th: Gold Sell-Off Continues as the Quarter Ends
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
Happy Friday Traders,
As we come to the end of the trading week, let’s not forget that we are also wrapping up the quarter. That can often time lead to some strange moves, especially in equities, as the big funds jostle to tidy up their books and lock in some profits. This quarter it’s been equities and crude oil that have been the strong performers, while the USD has fallen flattest of all.
We also have to remember that we can often be faced with some North Korean headlines over the weekend. For the last month, or more, we've been getting missile tests and rants from the Kim Jong-un and that’s usually over the weekend or early Monday. That might give the safe-havens a bit of a kick in late trade.
We have a few big data points out of Europe today, which certainly has the potential to get the EUR and GBP moving, so we should be in for another interesting session to wrap up the quarter.
Top Economic Events
EUR – German Unemployment is out at 7:55 GMT and analysts are predicting no change from the previous month.
GBP – UK GDP is set to be released at 6:30 GMT and predictions are for no change, coming in at 1.7% YoY.
EUR – CPI for the Eurozone is out at 9:00 GMT and there are predictions of a slight uptick at 1.6%.
Gold – The Downtrend Continues
Gold has been one of the weaker performers in recent times and we’ve seen the slide from all the way back above 1350. On a Friday we can often get a spike as we head into the weekend. My view is that we use this as an opportunity to sell ahead of more weakness going forward.
Gold – 240 min Chart.
Gold – Trading Plan
There are two key levels of interest to me. 1290 and 1300 are the areas that I’m looking to scale into my gold trade for today. I am wary of a potential spike coming into the close of the week so I want to accumulate a short position, however, I will be targeting 1300 as key resistance.
We can see that there was a spike out of the channel, that promptly retracted. That’s the kind of price action I’m looking for this time around.
USD/CHF – Running into Resistance
The safe-haven trade is certainly on the backburner for the time being as is clear with gold. However the major safe-haven forex pair, the USD/CHF has developed a really pretty looking chart from a technical perspective.
We have tried and failed to breach the overhead resistance level a number of times and have failed each time.
USD/CHF – 240 min Chart
USD/CHF – Trading Plan
I’ve spoken about getting a bit of a bounce in the USD and if we do get a spike there is every chance we will retest the 0.9750 level in the USD/CHF. That sets us up for a nice longer-term trade to the downside.
We are also in the midst of a bearish channel which only adds to my opinion on this trade.
The end-of-quarter is upon us and hopefully, it doesn’t throw us any curve balls. It should be another big session to wrap things up. And don’t forget to tune into our leading analysts to get the very best forex signals.