Friday Forex Session Preview: EUR/USD In Focus

Today’s U.S. forex session has been extremely active, highlighted by trend days in the USD/CHF and EUR/USD. The ECB announcements brought sustained participation to the markets and shook up the valuations of many asset classes.

Friday’s Calendar

Money management and trade selection become extra important as we near the trading week’s end. Here are the upcoming releases to be aware of as we roll into Friday’s session:

• Japan’s CPI

• Australia’s PPI

• Finland’s Consumer Confidence

• Sweden’s Retail Sales

• United States’ GDP

The big item here is the U.S. GDP release at 8:30 AM EST. Estimates for the third quarter are around 2.6%, under the last release of 3.1%. This number seems to be a bit low, but likely accounts for the impact of the active hurricane season.

EUR/USD Technicals

The EUR/USD has been in a freefall for the entirety of the U.S. session. As of this writing, the EUR/USD is pushing session lows, down over 150 pips.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart

The coming trade of the EUR/USD will be dictated by fundamentals. A quick look at the daily chart illustrates the degree of today’s selloff but is of limited use in finding support levels to hang our hats on.

The August low of 1.1662 is bringing some buyers to the market. Other downside support levels are at the round numbers of 1.1650 and 1.1600. The 38% retracement of the yearly range is a ways off at 1.1422 but may come into play in November.

Overview: Personally, I am not interested in jumping in front of freight trains. Until the selling pressure subsides, I will be firmly on the sidelines for the action. After today’s close, we will have some concrete levels to work with moving forward.

Bottom Line

If you have made money over the past four sessions, make sure that your trading plan guarantees that you take some of it home with you on tomorrow’s close. There are few things more demoralizing than a huge loss on Friday that wipes out a week’s worth of work!

Tomorrow’s U.S. GDP number is likely to spike volatility and opportunity. Stay tuned to FX Leaders for ideas on how to trade a wide variety of asset classes in the hours ahead of the 8:30 AM EST release.