Morning Preview: FOMC Holds… For Now
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read
Without a doubt all eyes were on the FOMC interest rate decision and as expected nothing changed. However, there was enough leeway in what was said to suggest there is a strong chance of a December hike. And that’s really what markets were interested in hearing.
As it stands there’s over a 90% chance of a hike in December and we saw a few of the majors start taking on some USD strength. The USD/JPY, in particular, seemed like it wanted to preempt the rise and started making a fast track for the 114.00 level which it successfully took out.
Focus now turns to the Bank of England which it appears is all but a certainty to hike rates. Markets have again priced in a 90% chance of rise, however, the GBP slipped a touch as it feels to me like the rise is all but factored into the market already.
The US Dollar is still continuing to grind higher and yesterday started its pushback to the 95.00 level. I have no doubt we will have more strength in the USD in the next 30 days as anticipation grows ahead of a December hike.
As such I am bullish on the USD against most majors, with the exception of the GBP, as we will have to wait and see how the BOE acts today. But don’t forget we still have to navigate Friday's jobs number.
US Dollar Index (DXY) – 240 min Chart
Key Economic Events
EUR – German Unemployment
GBP – BOE Interest Rate Decision
AUD – Retail Sales
USD – Employment