Dec 14 – Last, Most Important Day Of Dec 2017!
Arslan Butt • 3 min read
Good morning, traders.
Once again, FX leaders team shared some great forex trading signals especially, DAX, EUR/JPY and our long-term signal on Gold. We saw some nice action from the USD which worked to our advantage. The EUR is going to see a lot of excitement today so get ready. Tighten your seatbelts again as we are expecting another aggressively volatile day…
Today’s Top Events
Great Britain Pound – GBP
Folks, it’s a monetary policy day for the Sterling. The BOE (Bank of England) will be releasing its interest rate and, most importantly, it’s bank rate votes. Let’s see how to trade…
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes – The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting minutes contain the interest rate vote for each MPC member during the most recent meeting. The breakdown of votes provides acumen into which members are shifting their stance on interest rates and how close the committee is to determine a rate change in the future.
This data is releasing at 12:00 (GMT) with a forecast of 0-0-9. Here, the first number shows how many MPC members voted to raise interest rates, the second number is how many chose to lower rates, and the third is how many voted to hold rates as it is.
In the previous month, this figure was forecasted as 7-0-2 which means 7 out of 9 members choose to increase the interest rates.
How Can We Trade Bank Rate Vote?
Honestly, I can’t see any good opportunities here this month. But, let’s say a couple of MPC members decide to move to the left side of the figure (2-0-7), we can go long on Sterling. Else, 0-0-9 will go mute.
Official Bank Rate – At 12:00 (GMT), the BOE will release the interest rates with the expectation that the rates will hold at 0.50%. As the BOE increased the rates in Nov by 25 bp, I’m not expecting them to hike the rates again this month. So, again we may not see anything interesting to trade here. The volatility will be there due to noisy traders but it will be unpredicted and sudden.
Eurozone – EUR
The Market will be releasing multiple Flash Manufacturing and Flash Services PMI figures. These includes:
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI – 8:00 (GMT)
- French Flash Services PMI – 8:00 (GMT)
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI – 8:30 (GMT)
- German Flash Services PMI – 8:30 (GMT)
- Flash Manufacturing PMI – 9:00 (GMT)
- Flash Services PMI – 9:00 (GMT)
These are some of the leading indicators of economic health. Businesses react quickly to market conditions.Their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company’s view of the economy. Though the releases above show expansion in economic growth, we need to compare these with previous figures to determine trends.
ECB – Monetary Policy & It’s Impact
One of the most important events will be the ECB Minimum Bid Rate decision and press conference.
In this era, all the central bankers are in the race to hike interest rates to keep their currencies stable against others, except the ECB. The ECB’s president Mario Draghi speaks less about the interest rates, but they are doing their best to taper the bond buying.
Be ready at 12:45 (GMT) for the Minimum Bid Rate it’s expected to be 0.00%. It’s been more than one and a half years now that the ECB has not played with the rate. Can we expect them to do something before the end of 2017? We will have to wait and see. I’m keeping a close eye on this figure to avoid any surprises.
U.S. Dollar – USD
At 13:30 (GMT), we have Core Retail Sales m/m from the United States with a positive forecast of 0.6% vs. 0.1% last month. On the other hand, the Retail Sales m/m is expected to be 0.3% vs 0.2% last month. These figures can support the tumbling greenback today.
Swiss Franc – SNB Monetary Policy
At 8:30 (GMT), the Swiss National Bank is expected to release the Libor Rate with a forecast of -0.75%. Since they release the rate every three months, we should expect surprises.
Make sure to put Fxleaders.com on your bookmarks to get coverage on the latest events and to avail every latest forex trading signal. Good luck and have an awesome day!