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Intraday Trading Plan For The AUD/USD

Posted Friday, December 22, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

It is another tight pre-holiday session in the financial markets. News surrounding the Bitcoin (BTC) crash and President Trump’s schedule for signing the tax bill are the lead stories for today. For this early U.S. session, I am looking hard at yesterday’s recommendation facing the AUD/USD.

Today’s Economic Numbers

There were a few pieces of data released a bit earlier today. The markets took them in stride due to limited participation:

Event                                                                Projected           Actual

Core Personal Consumption (MoM, Nov.)          0.1%                 0.1%

Durable Goods(Nov.)                                          2.0%                 1.3%

Personal Consumption (MoM, Nov.)                   0.0%                  0.2%

Personal Income (MoM, Nov.)                            0.4%                   0.3%

This slate of numbers is nothing to write home about. Lagging Durable Goods and Personal Income is not surprising in the wake of the sluggish earlier week GDP numbers.

AUD/USD Technicals

During a Thursday update , outlined a trading plan for shorting the Aussie. Price rallied just short of entry, missing by a few ticks.

AUD/USD, Weekly Chart

Opportunities are going to be slim today. As the session wears on, action is likely to subside in anticipation of the holiday weekend. Any short-term trades will need to be quick hitters before the forex close. Going into the break with an open position is inherently risky.

Here are the key levels in the AUD/USD for today:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Fibonacci retracement of current wave, .7739
  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, .7709
  • Support(2): 20 Day EMA, .7702

Bottom Line: I was optimistic that this morning’s numbers would give us a shot at the sell from .7729. Price fell just short, posting an intraday high of .7720. As of this writing, price is in the vicinity of .7715 within a tight daily range.

In the unlikely event that we get a run at yesterday’s entry, I will be going short. However, it will be tough to realize a nice win given the time constraints. Profit targets will be modest, looking for 10-15 pips and exiting at today’s close.  

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