WTI Crude Oil: Long-Term Pricing Outlook - Forex News by FX Leaders

WTI Crude Oil: Long-Term Pricing Outlook

Posted Friday, December 22, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Make no mistake, $60.00 is a huge psychological level for crude oil. In fact, as my colleague Rowan mentioned, $59.00 has been a monster for WTI crude over the past month. As we head toward 2018, the $59.00-$60.00 area may serve as either a top or launch point for long-term valuations.

With the global economy kicking into high gear amid the U.S. equities boom, it stands to reason that commodities will see a bump. Energy is the driver of commerce. When times are good oil is valuable; when they are not oil slumps.

WTI Crude Oil Outlook

The weekly chart for January WTI crude clearly defines where we are at in the oil market. Even though February is the new front-month futures contract, the January chart gives the best representation of December’s price action.


WTI Crude Oil Futures, Weekly Chart

Perhaps the most important aspect of this chart is that the weekly ranges have maintained above the 38% retracement of the current wave. This is an extremely bullish signal and one that lends credence to a break toward $60.00.

However, the holiday season has hurt participation levels mightily. The new front-month February WTI crude futures have only traded around 290,000 contracts for the session. The topside test will likely be on hold until after the Christmas break.

Overview: The second half of 2017 has been a good one for crude oil. Rallying from the mid $40’s to the high $50’s is a considerable gain. If the current U.S. equities boom and economic growth is sustained during the first quarter of 2018, then $75 crude may not be that far-fetched.

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