U.S. Cash Open: Possible Long Entry For The S&P 500

Posted Wednesday, December 27, 2017 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

It appears that the holiday week is in full swing for the U.S. equities indices. Similar to yesterday, it is another muted cash open with the DJIA in the red five points and the S&P 500 near flat. No doubt about it, most of the big money has decided to either hit the ski slopes or work on their tans.

There were several U.S. economic metrics out in the pre-market hours. The Redbook index for December 18 came in well above previous releases, while Pending Home sales outperformed industry expectations yet again.

The U.S. Housing Market Continues To Ignore Seasonality.

While down considerably from previous numbers, U.S. Pending Home Sales (MoM, November) was reported at 0.2%, well above the estimate of -0.5%. These numbers are surprising given the North American Winter season has come with such ferocity.

S&P 500 Technical Outlook

Trade is tight early on Wall Street, indicative of a holiday week. Slow periods like this give us a chance to take a step back and put this year’s action in the proper context. For E-mini S&P 500 futures, the weekly chart illustrates just how active the bulls have been.

March E-mini S&P 500, Weekly Chart

A quick look at the chart shows the extent of 2017’s bull market. The grind higher began to take hold in the Spring months and has accelerated toward the end of the year. Buyers were waiting in the weeds on every pullback, repeatedly driving values to fresh all-time highs.

For this week, I do not see a whole lot happening. But early next week could be a historic one for the S&P 500. Many experts in the investment community are calling for the DJIA to soar over 30,000 in the first half of 2018. While this is certainly possible, so is an immediate January correction. If the DJIA experiences early pressure, the S&P 500 will follow suit.

Bottom Line: As long as the weekly high of 2698.00 remains intact I will be looking to go long from the 38% retracement level of 2644.00. While this trade has a better chance to go live next week, one has to bet that there are still bulls interested in buying dips.

A rapid sell off on 2018’s open may give us a premium long entry. Until then, trade smart and use your capital wisely!

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