The USD saw a little bit of downside on Monday and that meant the EUR/USD and the other majors held-up.
The week ahead looks like there are a number of big economic numbers that will have a significant impact on the Euro over the next few days. They include US CPI, Retail Sales and German GDP which are amongst the biggest.
Given the path of the USD, which looks like it is now turning around, we have to assume the EUR/USD is now looking bearish. I personally feel that we are looking at some more downside ahead.
1.2300 is an important resistance level and it’s one that I would consider selling at looking for a move lower. If, however, we pull above 1.2350 in any meaningful way then I think the bearish move might take a bit longer to play out.
1.2200 is my key support level for the time being. If we pull below that point, then I see us having more downside.
Of course, these are also the major round numbers, but they do have a tendency to act as a good guide in Euro trades.