U.S. Overnight Preview For The EUR/USD

Posted Wednesday, February 14, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The news cycle of the past 24 hours has brought a wealth of players to the EUR/USD market. In sharp contrast to early-week consolidation, price has broken out and is running heavily to the bull. As of this writing, the market has returned to the 1.2400-1.2500 area.

A combination of mixed economic metrics from the European and U.S. sessions has created considerable volatility for the EUR/USD. Several key events are slated to occur in the coming 24 hours that will further impact valuations:

Event                                                                           Time

ECB Member Yves Mersch Speech                         3:15 AM EST

ECB Member Peter Praet Speech                            5:45 AM EST

ECB Member Sabine Lautenschlaeger Speech     7:00 AM EST

U.S. Jobs Report, Philly FED Survey                      8:30 AM EST

Each of these events, especially the speeches scheduled for ECB members, has the potential to sway Euro and USD markets dramatically. Investors will be looking for clues on whether or not the future of ECB policy is to remain dovish against the Euro. Also, given the recent market sensitivity in U.S. equities, all eyes will be on the Jobs Report and the Philadelphia FED.

All in all, there is a lot going on in the next 24 hours, so be ready for anything.

EUR/USD Technicals

Today’s session marks the fourth straight day the Euro is posting gains against the greenback. After an initial test of downside support at the Bollinger MP, this market has been trending hard to the bull.

EUR/USD, Daily Chart

It appears that the value area established between 1.2400 and 1.2500 is acting as a magnet for participation. The intraday high is in at 1.2443, almost in the dead center of this range.

Bottom Line: The swing high of 1.2537 is the basis for a double top formation. Failed daily highs at 1.2522 and 1.2517 have confirmed the presence of sellers in this area.

For the rest of the week, I will have sell orders in the queue from 1.2515 with an initial stop at 1.2551. Given a 1:1 R/R management scenario, this trade is worth 36 pips on rotation back to the value area between 1.2500 and 1.2400.

As always, trade smart and for tomorrow!

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