crude oil

Possible Short Trade Setup In WTI Crude Oil

Posted Monday, February 26, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

WTI crude oil futures have put in a bullish session, posting a rally of 75 cents. Price has broken above resistance on the daily time frame and is now headed for an intermediate-term level. It appears that $65 crude oil may be on the horizon.

In a live market update from last Friday, I outlined a few scenarios facing the April WTI crude oil contract. A test of a key topside level will set the stage for a shorting opportunity. As price rolls toward 2018’s high at $66.39, we could see this technical area come into play relatively soon.

WTI Crude Oil Technicals

We are scheduled for a full week of trade, in comparison to last week’s abbreviated Monday session due to President’s Day. The economic calendar is back to normal, featuring the API crude oil stocks for tomorrow and the EIA inventories due out Wednesday morning.

April WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the important levels to watch as we grind deeper into the trading week:

  • Resistance(1): 78% Macro Retracement, $64.52
  • Resistance(2): 2018 High, $66.39
  • Support(1): 62% Macro Retracement, $63.15

Bottom Line: A short position from $64.49 is a solid way to play a retracement from topside resistance. This entry may serve as either a scalp or a position trade. If scalping, look for 8-15 ticks using a 1:1 risk vs reward scenario. If a position trade is desired, an initial stop at $65.02 will give this trade a chance to produce over 40 ticks on a rotation back to $64.00.

Chances are there will be a bulk of stop out orders located just above the $65.00 handle. In the event that they are triggered, look for an immediate run to $65.25 and a test of $66.39 in the near-term.

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