Markets on Monday: The Dollar To Wait on Powell
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
All the attention this week falls firmly at the feet of one man. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. At his first crack at the top job, Powell will be thrust into the spotlight at the monthly meeting of the FOMC, where it is strongly assumed that we will see the first of three rate hikes this year.
This is a big moment for Powell as he hasn’t long taken over the top job from Janet Yellen. And it comes at a time, where the US is trying to get their monetary policy back to what many would consider normal.
If this is, in fact, the first of three hikes this year, then that is certainly a case for a bullish dollar. There is even speculation that Powell might be lining up for four hikes. He was very bullish on the state of the US economy the first time he spoke publicly, which was a real hawkish tone to take, straight off the bat.
For the month of March, we haven’t really had much momentum. That could be said for the entire YTD in truth.
As is stands we haven’t really been able to make the most out of the hawkish tones, as political tension continues to mount.
As it stands, we are really in a range between 89.50 and 90.50, and we can’t really find any clear direction. I’m long-term bullish, yet short-term bearish. If that’s possible. So I don’t expect a big breakout to the upside just yet.
In truth, we will have to wait on the Fed and the only real shock would come if there was no hike. Given that the probability is so high, any upside in the USD is probably already priced in.
US Dollar Index (DXY)- 240 min Chart.