Forex Preview: Fibonacci Resistance For The EUR/USD

It has been a dull day on the forex, producing limited action and extra-wide spreads. Coming sessions may bring more of the same. Due to the observance of the Easter holiday, the coming weekend features a wide-open economic calendar and an abnormal Sunday electronic open.

Below are a few events worthy of note scheduled for the coming days:

Country                   Event

China                      NBS Manufacturing PMI (March), Caixin Manufacturing PMI (March)

Japan                     Tankan Manufacturing Index (Q1)

The big event this weekend is the Easter holiday. Liquidity was limited today and I expect more of the same during the Sunday overnight and early Monday sessions. All in all, it is a great time to take a break and recharge the batteries.

EUR/USD Technicals

Today’s action in the EUR/USD has been choppy. As I mentioned in an earlier update, spreads have been upwards of five pips and price action sporadic.

As we move toward next week, the EUR/USD is trading at a make-or-break technical area on the daily timeframe. Price is just below topside resistance and poised to grind lower. Here are the levels to watch upon the forex open Sunday evening:

• Resistance(1): Bollinger MP, 1.2334
• Resistance(2): Daily SMA, 1.2336
• Resistance(3): 38% Retracement of Current Wave, 1.2357

Overview: The area between 1.2334 and 1.2357 is setting up to be formidable topside resistance. Without any primary market moving events scheduled until the Eurozone CPI later in the week, this market may continue to rotate near the 1.2300 handle.

It is very difficult to develop a trading plan for Monday based on today’s muted action. However, 1.2357 will be a key number for coming sessions. If it proves to be valid topside resistance, a test of the Swing Low (1.2154) may be in the cards by this time next week.

From the team here at FX Leaders, have a fantastic Easter and see you when the opening bell rings!