Tokyo CPI Is In, Retracement For The USD/JPY

Posted Friday, March 30, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

The U.S. futures and equities markets are closed today in observance of Good Friday. However, the forex and cryptocurrency OTC markets are in full swing. With a bit of luck, a trade or two will present itself during today’s session.

One of the most active pairs this week has been the USD/JPY. The release of the Tokyo CPI and Japanese Unemployment metrics during the overnight has prompted a retracement of the recent bull-run. Both numbers came in beneath expectations. The result has been the yen gaining on the USD.

USD/JPY Technicals

The USD/JPY is currently trading at several key technical levels on the daily timeframe.

USD/JPY, Daily Chart

As today’s trade unfolds, be on the lookout for shrinking liquidity going into the holiday weekend. U.S. participants are very likely to call it an early day.

Here are the key levels to watch for the remainder of the session:

  • Resistance(1): Daily SMA, 106.18
  • Resistance(2): Bollinger MP, 106.35
  • Support(1): 38% Retracement of Current Wave, 106.09

Overview: Thus far, price has put in an intraday low of 106.11. This extreme serves as a proximity test of the 38% Fibonacci level at 106.09. In the event that the 106.00 handle holds up as the session bottom, the recent daily uptrend will be preserved.

Given the compromised liquidity of a holiday, trading from technical levels can be a tricky business. Order flow is inconsistent leading to choppy price action. If you are involved in the market today, placing an added emphasis on risk management is a good idea.

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