U.S. Overnight Preview: Eurozone CPI, EUR/USD In Focus

Posted Tuesday, April 3, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

March was a relatively tight month for the EUR/USD. With a trading range around 320 pips, neither bulls nor bears were able to gain enough momentum to drive price directionally. Perhaps April will provide shifting fundamentals and a trending market for the EUR/USD.

The coming U.S. overnight session features several items that will act as catalysts for participation in the Euro. The Eurozone CPI and Core CPI for March are primary market movers. The industry consensus expects both numbers to come in over the previous release.

In addition, the Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Feb.) is due out. Projections are for Unemployment to come in at 8.5%, just below the previous release of 8.6%. There are no keynote economic metrics facing the USD due out until Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report.

EUR/USD Technicals

Since the robust action of January, traders have been anxious for a move in the EUR/USD. Will the Eurozone CPI shake up valuations and stimulate a short-term trend?

EUR/USD, Daily Chart

Calling the EUR/USD market accurately has been a challenge lately. Whipsaw intraday conditions have been the norm, with bears showing strength the last two sessions.

Topside resistance at the Bollinger MP and Daily SMA proved valid earlier today. Price’s rejection of these two areas on the daily timeframe has given credence to a short-term bearish bias.

Overview: As I write this update, it appears that the EUR/USD is content rotating between 1.2275 and 1.2250. Market participants are likely to limit risk going into the Eurozone CPI release, which could give us a daily close in the proximity of this area.

With a bit of luck, CPI will break this market out of its doldrums for tomorrow’s session. While my bias is currently bearish, price action has been limited over the last four sessions. Hopefully, we will get a directional move and a trade setup in the coming hours.

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