How to Trade Gold on US NFP Today?

Posted Friday, April 6, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 1 min read

Finally, the most awaited day of the month has come. I’m talking about the US non-farm payroll data. Gold is trading bearish despite the latest remarks from Trump which are driving uncertainty into the market. The point of concern is whether positive NFP is already priced in. If yes, then how should we trade Gold today?

Sentiment Analysis – Price In NFP  

The US dollar has been supported since Wednesday, as the Automatic Data Processing, Inc. reported an employment change of 241K vs. 208K forecast. Due to the positive correlation between NFP and ADP, the market is expecting positive labor market reports. Consequently, we are seeing a bearish trend in Gold; perhaps on the back of sentiments.

Gold - Hourly Chart

Gold – Hourly Chart

Looks like investors have already priced in a positive NFP as investors are not triggering the safe-haven appeal, despite the trade war fears.  

Support     Resistance

1331.5       1334.7

1330.5       1335.7

1328.9       1337.3

Key Trading Level:    1333.1

Gold – XAU/USD – Trading Idea

If you remember, we shared a buying level of $1,322/24 above which Gold turned bullish multiple times. Today, the movement of Gold is highly dependent on NFP. Better than expected NFP may trigger further selling until $1,313, but only if $1.322 is broken. I will be looking to stay bullish above $1,322 on negative NFP to target $1,332. Good Luck!

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