April 17 – Economic Events Outlook – Risk-off Sentiment Waning

Posted Tuesday, April 17, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The US dollar weakened after a slightly weaker than expected CPI figures. The headline figure core retail sales were 0.2%, as expected. Despite all this, the ongoing geopolitical tensions are keeping the dollar on hold. 

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

Australian Dollar – AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes – The Reserve Bank of Australia’s March policy meeting minutes were in focus during the Asian open. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting minutes showed that its Board agreed that the next move in rates was more likely to be up than down, considering the economy gained momentum as expected. The RBA minutes, although slightly hawkish, failed to surprise the market. Disappointed investors are selling the Aussie, making it weaker against its peers.

Chinese Yuan – CNY

GDP q/y – As we know, the Chinese GDP plays an important role when trading the Australian dollar. China’s economy was expected to have expanded by 6.8% y/y over January-March, exactly the same as a prior quarter. The actual release came in line with expectations.

Since Chinese GDP figures are neutral, investors may price in the RBA meeting minutes today.

Great Britain Pound – GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y- The leading indicator of consumer inflation. The figure shows the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. When businesses pay more for labor, the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer, leading to inflation.

The UK’s Office for National Statistics is expected to show a gain of 3% vs. 2.8% in Feb.

Claimant Count Change – The figure shows a change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month. The figures are due at 8:30 (GMT), with a forecast of 13.3K vs. 9.2K previously.

Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%.

US Dollar – USD

Building Permits – At 12:30 (GMT), the Census Bureau is due to release the building permits. The building permit is an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Logically, we won’t invest in capital assets until and unless we are confident about the economic conditions.

Summing Up – At the moment, the economic docket is full of top-tier events. We need to be very careful before opening trades, especially before the news releases. All the best for today!

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