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May 2 – Economic Events Outlook – Risk-off Flow Returns ahead of FOMC

On Wednesday, the trade war fears with China resurfaced after the U.S. Secretary of Commerce ,Wilbur Ross, announced that the Trump Administration is ready to impose higher tariffs on China if an agreement on trade imbalances isn’t reached soon. Today we have many market-moving economic events, FOMC statements and ADP nonfarm topping the list. Let’s see what to expect from FOMC and how to manage the upcoming risk.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

Great Britain Pound – GBP

Construction PMI- Today, Markit is due to release the indicator at 8:30 (GMT). This is a survey of about 170 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The data is expected to be 50.9 vs. 47.0 in March.

U.S. Dollar – USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – The Automatic Data Processing Inc. will be releasing the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change at 12:15 (GMT). It’s expected to drop to 194K vs. 241K of the previous month.

The ADP figure generally correlates with the Nonfarm payroll and is often called the advance NFP. The negative forecast will be weighing the dollar until the news release. Whereas, the actual ADP will give us an indication about labor market figures that are due this Friday.

U.S. Monetary Policy Decision

FOMC Statement & Federal Funds Rate – At 18:00 (GMT) the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the interest rate on hold at 1.75%. This FOMC is expected to have muted impact on the market because the next rate hike is only expected in July. As there’s no press conference expected from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, the release is likely to add bearishness to the U.S. dollar.

Summing Up – Fellows, You are advised to follow strict money management strategies as we may see solid movements on the release of FOMC statement. Yup, I’m not expecting a rate hike but the timeframe regarding the next rate hike may make FOMC hawkish. There are several technical setups lining up for today, so just stay tuned to our upcoming articles and forex trading signals. Good luck!

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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