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A Bearish USD/CAD Sets Up A Rotational Thursday

Today’s release of the EIA crude oil stocks report has proven a tough pill to swallow for traders of the Loonie. The bears have dominated the session for the USD/CAD. Nonetheless, the intraday action has become choppy since EIA number was made public.

Comments from BoC Deputy Governor Schembri have promoted positive sentiment toward the CAD. Schembri stated that Canada’s economy is operating “near capacity,” and the BoC will have “a bit more room” to support demand without sparking inflation. Simply put, it looks like 2018 will feature more rate hikes from the BoC.

USD/CAD Technicals

In the hours since Schembri’s comments, the USD/CAD has resumed its early-session bearish ways. At press time, price is testing intraday lows.

USD/CAD, Daily Chart

Barring a late-day bullish breakout in WTI crude oil, the USD/CAD is very likely to close in between the Bollinger MP and Daily SMA. If this is the case, be on the lookout for a consolidating range for Thursday’s session.

Overview: Today has been a positive day for the Canadian dollar. The lagging EIA report and positive outlook from the BoC have given currency traders optimism toward the Loonie. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues going into the weekly close. 

The Thursday session is filled with secondary market drivers facing the USD/CAD. However, Canadian CPI and Retail Sales are primary economic events scheduled for Friday morning. Consensus opinion has the CPI unchanged and Retail sales below the previous release. 

If this market is slow going into tomorrow’s U.S. session, a rotational trading plan may be in store. Until then, trade smart and for tomorrow!

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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