WTI Crude

Oil Inventories In, WTI Value Area Between $65.50-$65.00

Posted Wednesday, June 20, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

August WTI crude oil is trading to the bull today, up over $0.50 per barrel for the session. Round numbers often dictate trade in a non-committal market. Since rollover of the July to August futures contract, price has consolidated in the neighborhood of $65.50-$65.00. Ahead of Friday’s OPEC meeting, energy traders and investors appear reluctant to book any new risk.

Weekly Oil Inventories Reports

It is becoming obvious that accurately predicting oil inventories on a weekly basis is a monumental endeavor. I think that one may be better off playing roulette instead of forecasting crude oil supply numbers.

In any case, here are the stats for this week:

  • Tuesday’s API stocks report came in at -3.016 million barrels, down almost 4 million from last week.
  • Earlier today, the EIA stocks number came in at -5.914 million barrels. This is well beneath estimates of -1.898 million and similar to last week’s -4.143 million.

At least the EIA report landed on the right side of zero — albeit over 4 million barrels short. After the release, August WTI crude futures ran to the bull before returning to intraday value area just above $65.50. At press time, price is pushing $66.00.

WTI Crude Oil Technicals

After Friday’s mammoth sell-off, August WTI has posted a solid comeback. Price has settled near $65.00 for the past three sessions.

August WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
August WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch for the rest of the session:

  • Resistance(1): Bollinger MP, $66.54
  • Resistance(2): Daily SMA, $67.07
  • Support(1): 78% Macro Retracement, $63.91

Overview: With headlines out of the OPEC meeting rapidly approaching, it is anyone’s guess where this market will close at the week’s end. Lagging stocks should promote bullish participation. Nonetheless, it is tough to hold longs ahead of the pending meeting.

Increased production is supposed to be the primary theme of the OPEC meeting, likely sending WTI plummeting. Given the result of today’s EIA report, it may be best to sit this one out and avoid the temptation to go long on lagging short-term supply.

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About the author

Shain Vernier is our US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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