Macro-Resistance In View For The USD/CAD

Posted Thursday, June 21, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

It is going to be a wild close to the forex week for the Loonie. With the OPEC meeting rapidly approaching and several other releases due up Friday, the USD/CAD may look very different by the weekend.

So far for the Thursday session, 1.3300 is proving to be valid support. Will it hold up amid the coming news cycle?

The Next 36 Hours: Events That Will Impact The USD/CAD

The next 36 hours on the forex has the potential to drive the USD/CAD directionally. Here are the events that will impact USD/CAD pricing before Friday’s close:

Events                                                      Projections

OPEC Meeting                           A boost to production is expected to be announced

BoC Core CPI (YoY, May)                                1.4%

Retail Sales (MoM, April)                               0.0%

The Bank of Canada (BoC) Core CPI and Retail Sales reports are primary market drivers. Expectations for each are low. If they are not met, look for a weak response from the CAD.

Crude oil always plays a big role in USD/CAD pricing. Be on the lookout for any headlines coming out of the OPEC meeting. It is slated to kickoff during the Thursday/Friday U.S. overnight session. If production is not boosted or tensions mount, WTI crude oil will see heavy action. This will undoubtedly spike volatility facing the Loonie.

USD/CAD Technicals

Since late last week, the bullish break has been in full effect. Price is grinding just above the 1.3300 handle — is it north or south from here?

USD/CAD Daily Chart
USD/CAD Daily Chart

There are two levels on my radar taken from the daily chart:

  • Resistance(1): 78% Retracement Of 2017 Range, 1.3412
  • Support(1): Psyche Level, 1.3300

Bottom Line: The coming news cycle will be charged and volatility is certain to be high. Shorts from 1.3412 are a sound way of playing the long-term resistance level. With an initial stop at 1.3451, this trade is worth 39 pips using a basic 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

The macro 78% retracement is sure to attract participation due to its proximity to 1.3400 and may set up as an intermediate-term top. If so, a position short may be in the offing for next week.


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