The NZD/USD is in focus this week as we head into the RBNZ interest rate decision. While there is no expectation of a rate change, there will be a focus on what the statement has to say about a number of different areas.

They are all the usual suspects, but particularly inflation, wage growth and the state of the economy. Given the recent political changes that we’ve seen, it will be interesting to see whether there is a different mood in the air.

Today we got some more mixed data. The trade balance came in higher than anticipated, however, business activity was lower.

The Technical Picture

The NZD/USD is currently ticking below a big support level at 0.6850.

This is the level I’ve been watching for some time and we started getting some weakness in yesterday’s session as the USD finally found its feet.

My downside target is 0.6780, which is a swing low from late last year. If you look back you can see that this is really a big level that hasn’t cracked in some time. So I don’t expect this one to give way particularly easily.

With that in mind, I’m looking for a spike into the lows, and that might be a good area to use as a profit target. Entering as we approach 0.6800.