The UK is Busy at the Moment

July 10 – Economic Events Outlook – UK in Focus

Posted Tuesday, July 10, 2018 by
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read

The week opened with a few fireworks in the UK, thanks to more Brexit headlines doing the rounds. However, this time it was some of the high profile campaigners, including Boris Johnson, falling on their swords.

And it appears there is no rest for our friends in the UK and Europe as the day’s major economic events are heavily focused around the GBP/USD and EUR/USD. Any negative numbers are going to put a lot of pressure on the Pound in particular as it battles to hold 1.3200.

 

Major Economic Events To Watch

 

GBP – GDP

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is a common measure that has a high impact on markets. This particular number is a little different though. I believe this is the first monthly GDP number we have had out of the UK. In the past, we have always had a quarterly figure. We’ll watch this one with interest to gauge the impact going forward.

GBP – Manufacturing Production

This is a measure of the output of manufacturers in the UK. Last month we had a negative result and so far analysts are predicting a return to the positive.

GBP – Trade Balance

Generally a second-tier event, this month will be particularly interesting, given the fact that we have the Brexit saga in full flight. Keep an eye on the EU vs non-EU numbers and how that might impact the GBP.

EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment

Sentiment has been poor in Europe in recent times as well as Germany. We are still looking at a negative number overall, but a beat might help lift the EUR/USD. Which has found a bit of bid in recent times.

CAD – Building Permits and Housing Starts

Canada has been in the grips of both a housing boom and a correction in parts. These numbers will have an impact. However, with the BOC looming it might not be as large as it could be.

USD – JOLT Job Openings

We saw on Friday that the US employment situation is on the improve. With more than 200K jobs created last month, despite a slight uptick in unemployment. This number might not have the biggest impact, given the official figures from Friday are now well and truly priced into the USD.

CL – API Inventories

Crude Oil is bullish at the moment and we are looking at a likely further draw on inventories. This is always a reasonable preview of the EIA data out on Wednesday and a larger than anticipated draw could see a spike in WTI.

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About the author

Rowan Crosby is our Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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