GDP

EUR/USD On The Bear Ahead Of U.S. Q2 GDP

Posted Thursday, July 26, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The Greenback has put together a solid session against the forex majors. Gains vs the Euro, Swiss franc, and British pound have been the highlights as traders push the USD north ahead of Friday’s U.S. Q2 GDP release. It appears that the positive sentiment is flooding the markets, with the DJIA up triple digits and WTI crude oil flirting with the $70.00 handle.

A Quick Look At U.S. Q2 GDP

Expectations are high for tomorrow’s release of U.S. GDP for the second quarter. The industry consensus is a lofty 4.1%, more than double the first quarter’s 2%. Here is a look at the collection of metrics facing the U.S. due out Friday at 8:30 AM EST:

Event                                                                   Projected        Previous

Core Personal Consumption (QoQ, Q2)              2.2%                    2.3%

GDP Annualized (Q2)                                             4.1%                    2.0%

GDP Price Index (QoQ, Q2)                                   2.3%                   2.2%

Core Personal Consumption is expected to lag, while Annualized Q2 GDP is estimated to come in above 4%. This will mark the first time since Q3 of 2014 that the U.S. has posted 4% GDP.

It is difficult to overstate the importance of tomorrow’s release. Positive expectations are just fine, but in the event the numbers disappoint, look out for markets to go haywire. As always, have your stops down and leverage in check before, during, and after GDP becomes public.

EUR/USD Technicals

At press time, the EUR/USD is pushing south. Will the 1.1500 handle come into play by week’s end?

EUR/USD, Daily Chart
EUR/USD, Daily Chart

Bottom Line: It is impossible for anyone outside of the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to know if Friday’s GDP numbers are going to satisfy estimates. Nonetheless, traders are betting on a strong figure and further strengthening of the Greenback.

In the event that the EUR/USD continues to slide, I will be looking to take a long trade from above the double-bottom at 1.1526. Using a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio and an initial stop at 1.1489, this trade yields 37 pips on a rejection of the 1.1500 area.

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About the author

Shain Vernier is our US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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