Intermediate Term Outlook And Levels For The USD/CAD

Posted Thursday, August 23, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

Friday marks the beginning of the annual Jackson Hole Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Central bankers from around the globe are scheduled to give speeches, including U.S. FED Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Stephen Poloz. Rest assured that international trade tensions and geopolitics will be front-burner issues at the conference.

The speaking engagements of Powell (Friday, 10 AM EST) and Poloz (Saturday, 12:30 PM EST) are likely to influence the USD/CAD. Be on the lookout for strong verbiage pertaining to tariffs, embargoes, and duties.

Today’s action in the WTI crude oil market has done little to help the Canadian dollar (CAD). A modest sell-off has been the reaction after Wednesday’s massive news-driven rally. For the session, October WTI crude is down over $0.25. The USD/CAD has reflected this action with solid gains being posted by the Greenback over the Loonie.

USD/CAD Technicals

In an update from early August, I took a look at the USD/CAD weekly chart in-depth. It turns out that a key support level near the 1.3000 handle has stood tall repeatedly.

USD/CAD, Weekly Chart
USD/CAD, Weekly Chart

Each time this market attempts to enter long-term correction, buyers step in and defend the 1.3000 area. Earlier this week was no different. Wednesday’s post-FOMC Minutes selling drove rates to a session low at 1.2986 before bulls entered en masse.

Overview: There is a convergence of support levels between 1.2981 and 1.2900. The Bollinger MP, 38% yearly range retracement, and Weekly SMA are all present in this area. It will take a monumental effort for bears to run price under this range.

Of course, anything is possible when central bankers speak. This weekend’s Jackson Hole conference is capable of sending a multitude of scenarios our way by Monday. If rhetoric toward a prolonged U.S./China trade war and currency devaluation dominate the summit, then the USD/CAD may once again challenge the 1.3000 level in short order.

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