Devaluation of Currency - Inflation

Oct 11 – Economic Events Outlook – It’s all about ECB, BOE & US Inflation!

Posted Thursday, October 11, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

What’s up, traders.

Today, the market is expecting another volatile day in the wake of high impact economic events, including the monetary policy meeting accounts from the European Central Bank and Bank of England Governor speeches. Most importantly, the US inflation remains in the limelight today. Here’s what to expect from these macroeconomic events…

Today’s Economic Events Watchlist

EUR – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
Recalling the recent policy meeting, the European Central Bank did not make any change to its policies. In fact, the ECB President Mario Draghi sort of acknowledged the economic slowdown and named it as a temporary factor.

The current meeting minutes will present a look at the discussions within the Governing Council. All we need to see is what they are expecting to do considering recent worries over the economic slowdown.

Any remarks on tapering the QE (Quantitative program) and the next rate hike (which is expected next year in 2019) will help us drive further trends in the Euro.

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Governor Mark Carney is due to participate in a panel discussion about fintech at the International Monetary Fund Annual Meeting in Bali at 5:00 (GMT), but it may come with no surprises. Any discussion on the upcoming interest rate and Brexit matters can drive fluctuations in the market.

USD – Inflation Figures (CPI & Core CPI)
For all the newbies out there, it’s a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy. Back in September, the US Consumer Price Index fell short of expectations with Core CPI shrinking to 2.2% after topping at 2.4% in July. A monthly gain of 0.2% was observed in the headline monthly number in August while Core CPI rose by only 0.1%.

Today, the core CPI and the headline CPI figure are forecast to advance by 0.2% in the monthly figure.

USD – EIA Crude Oil Inventories
Fellas, it’s the primary gauge of supply and demand imbalances in the market, which can lead to changes in production levels and price volatility.

During the previous week, the Energy Information Administration reported a build of 8 million barrels which caused a massive drop in crude oil prices. Economists are expecting another build of 2.3 million barrels this week which is sort of bearish news for the black crack.

In case of a draw in inventories, perhaps up to -5 million barrels, we will have a pretty nice opportunity to buy crude oil. Let’s wait for it and stay tuned to FX Leaders for exciting trade setups and forex trading signals today. Good luck!

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About the author

Arslan Butt is our Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt is our Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst. Arslan is a professional market analyst and day trader. He holds an MBA in Behavioral Finance and is working towards his Ph.D. Before joining FX Leaders Arslan served as a senior analyst in a major brokerage firm. Arslan is also an experienced instructor and public speaker.
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