The ECB in Focus

What’s in Store for the EUR/USD This Week?

Posted Sunday, October 21, 2018 by
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read

The EUR/USD has spent that last trading week drifting lower, being driven predominantly by the USD.

The USD has had a bit of a rally, thanks to a hawkish FED and bond yields that are continuing to climb higher.

The FOMC stands ready to lift US interest rates at their December meeting with two more hikes likely in 2019. In contrast the ECB appears unlikely and unwilling to even put a rate hike on the agenda.

Of course, this week, that will be made clear for all to see as the ECB meets to discuss their official interest rate decision.

Mario Draghi has been hesitant to end the easy monetary policy that has been going on in Europe for some time and with that in mind, we have to assume that the EUR/USD will continue to be under pressure this week. Unless the ECB are able to pull a rabbit out of the hat.

Which I suspect is unlikely and will mean that once again the fate of the EUR/USD rests with the rising Greenback. Friday also features US GDP and if that number comes in stronger than expected, I think there might be some fireworks.

 

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD has been following technical support and resistance almost to the pip this week.

Price fell from the highs of 1.1600 which was resistance and bounced nicely off 1.450. Another clear support level.

As mentioned the price action is clearly on the back of USD, as on Friday the USD fell and the EUR/USD was able to bounce.

Depending on how dovish Mario Draghi is this week, we will almost certainly get a test of 1.1450, with the swing low at 1.1300 coming into play if a break holds.

EUR/USD
EUR/USD – 240 min
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About the author

Rowan Crosby is our Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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