oil

December WTI Futures Threaten To Extend Downtrend

Posted Friday, November 2, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Where have all the energy bulls gone? Since the controversy surrounding the disappearance of journalist Jamal Khashoggi has died down, WTI crude oil has been in a measured freefall. Supply numbers have been on a seasonal build, with the EIA and API inventories coming in positive on a weekly basis. Are prices headed toward the $55.00-$60.00 range in the near term?

One can certainly make the case for bearish oil pricing as we head into the North American winter months. The boosted output from Saudi Arabia has largely mitigated any supply chain concerns from pending Iranian sanctions. Seasonal demand for refined energy prices is also down. As a result, oil stocks are poised to grow. Fundamentally speaking, this market is heading down.

Let’s take a look at the technicals and see if they reinforce a bearish bias.

December WTI Futures

The daily technicals for December WTI futures are ominous at best. The trend is down, with the market threatening to post a fifth-straight losing session. It seems like a lifetime ago that the yearly highs of $76.72 were posted. In real time, it was only one month.

December WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
December WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Overview: Aside from the big, round number of $63.00, there isn’t a whole lot technically holding this market up. A test of $60.00 in the near future appears imminent.

If you are trading WTI, remember that it is Friday and the Baker-Hughes U.S. Oil Rig Count is due out at 1:00 PM EST. While not a primary market mover, the rig count gives us an idea of what producers are thinking in regards to North American production. Given the coming winter season and weak pricing, a drop in operational rigs may be in the offing.

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About the author

Shain Vernier is our US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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