jobs

USD Index Neutral Following JOLTS Report

Posted Tuesday, November 6, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

Earlier in the U.S. session, the JOLTS Job Openings (Sept.) report was released to the public. Most of the time, the JOLTS metric is a secondary market mover at best. However, given the strong performance of the U.S. economy throughout 2018, traders and investors are growing increasingly aware of all facets of employment. Today’s JOLTS release is one figure that is beginning to get extra attention from the markets.

Today’s JOLTS Job Openings (Sept.) came in at 7.009M, under industry estimates of 7.100M and August’s 7.293M figure. This is a substantial two-month falloff. Remember, JOLTS measures the number of monthly job vacancies and is crafted by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Essentially, today’s report is an admission of a slowing job market by the U.S. government itself.

USD Index Futures

Today’s action for December USD Index futures has been moderate and slightly bearish. This is no surprise as election day trading is often muted due to the injection of political uncertainty into the market.

December USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
December USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

Rates have fallen considerably over the last week, led by the November 1st plunge. As a result, several daily support levels are coming into view:

  • Support(1): 62% Current Wave, 95.885
  • Support(2): Bollinger MP, 95.765
  • Support(3): Daily SMA, 95.360

Overview: As I alluded to earlier, today’s U.S. electoral process is going to determine the direction of many markets. If the unexpected does strike, then valuations of USD Index futures will be shaken dramatically.

However, should the news cycle stay quiet, then look for a test of downside support in coming sessions. The FED’s game plan for the near future is cut-and-dried: rates are to remain static this Thursday before being raised in December. With any luck, a support level in the USD Index will come into play just ahead of Thursday’s FED Interest Rate Statement.

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About the author

Shain Vernier is our US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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