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Forex Signals Brief for Dec 17: Will the FOMC Bring a Santa Rally?

Times have been a little tough this year for investors as markets have well and truly been under pressure for most of the year.

As we come into what is effectively the final major trading week for the year, the bulls are hoping that perhaps the Santa rally might actually take off.

So far this has been one of the few years in recent times that markets have been going backwards. While there is always some degree of uncertainty in the air at any stage, the US-China worries have really compounded over the course of the year to put the brakes on.

The big hope we might have for the remainder of the week, comes with what the FOMC might say about their outlook for 2019. While we will likely get a rate hike in December as planned, there is a strong chance of some dovish talk about the future.

That might just be the catalysts stocks need to rally, but it might put some pressure on the USD at the same time.

Today the major focus is on Eurozone CPI. Growth continues to be weak and Mario Draghi would appreciate a strong number here today.


Forex Signal Update

The FX Leaders Team finished last week with nine winners and only the five losers for a 64% strike rate.

EUR/GBP – The EUR/GBP consolidating below the 0.9000 level which to me might be an opportunity.


Gold – Active Signal

Gold has fallen away and we are now back under 1240. Despite the volatility on Friday, gold has been falling from the recent highs which is a positive for this signal. A dovish FOMC will help as well.

Gold – 240min.


AUD/USD Active Signal

The AUD/USD is holding below the 0.7200 level after getting well and truly dumped on some poor Chinese data to end the week. Price is still bearish and our signal is still holding up despite a small retrace.

AUD/USD – 240min.


Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin has been making a slow and steady push to the downside and at the moment we are still hovering around the lows at $3,200.

We did push into the $3,100 region and as I have been suggesting I am still looking for a slide into $3,000.

The sell-off really looks like liquidation to me as price has been ruler down since the last pop to $4,350. Volatility has certainly contracted so far so it will be interesting to see how we respond should we tag $3,000 soon.

BTC – 240min.
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Rowan Crosby
Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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