The Final UK Q1 GDP Is Not What It Looks like

Economic Events Outlook, Dec 21 – Series of GDP Figures Line Up

Posted Friday, December 21, 2018 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

Happy Friday, traders.
With the holidays coming up, it’s likely that many traders’ minds are elsewhere. Many are probably busy buying gifts, attending end-of-year parties and that’s absolutely reasonable as it’s been a long year.

That being said, today is the last trading day of the month as the markets will be closed due to Christmas holidays. Good thing is, we have a series of top-tier catalysts to trade the market today. Let’s take a look.

Great Britain Pound – GBP

Current Account
The Office for National Statistics is expected to release the current account at 8:30 (GMT). It’s the difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter. Figures are expected to show a trade deficit of 22.2 billion vs. 20.3 billion in September 2018.

Final GDP q/q
The Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release the GDP figure at 8:30 (GMT). The GDP (gross domestic product) is expected to remain unchanged at 0.6% vs. 0.6% in the previous quarter.

However, considering the recent drop in the UK’s inflation figures from 2.7% to 2.4%, the market will be trading the Pound with a weaker sentiment.

On the release of positive news, Sterling can stay bullish as the BOE (Bank of England) will be expected to keep a hawkish tone in its monetary policy meetings.

US Dollar – USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
Besides the UK GDP figures, you should watch core durable goods orders at 13:30 (GMT). It’s an economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items. The orders are expected to gain by 0.3% which is higher than the 0.2% gain in November 2018.

Looking at the past four months’ history, the core durable goods data has shown much deviation from its forecast and previous figures which is actually very good from the trading point of view. The more it deviates, the more we have chances to capture the price fluctuations.

Final GDP q/q
It’s a quarterly figure and does place a good impact on the financial markets. In Q3 2018, the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 4.2%, the fastest in four years. The Q4 release of GDP is also expected to show a slight drop in numbers from 4.2% to 3.5%, allowing Trump to criticize further on the rising interest rates from the Fed. A release of 3% or lower figure can cause a sharp selling in the dollar and vice versa.

Canadian Dollar – CAD

GDP m/m
The Statistics Canada is due to release the gross domestic product at 12:30 (GMT). Traders, it will be really interesting to see how recent tariffs from the US have impacted Canadian productivity. Economists expectation is 0.2%, up from -0.1%.

Summing Up – Today, the market can exhibit intense volatility as the economic calendar is loaded with top-tier events. So, brace yourself for volatility and try not to take shots before the news releases. Have an awesome weekend.

Check out our free forex signals
Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
Related Articles
0 0 vote
Article Rating
Notify of
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments