Holiday Week Crude Oil Inventories Are In

Posted Friday, December 28, 2018 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

Due to the observance of Christmas, the weekly crude oil inventory cycle was completed several days later than usual. However, both the API and EIA numbers are in and energy traders are evaluating the global oil markets as 2019 rapidly approaches.

The Crude Oil Inventories Are In…

This week featured a rare two-day delay in the oil inventories statistics. The WTI market has been all over the map this week, featuring massive selloffs, rallies, and rotation. Perhaps this set of stocks numbers will send price directional to wrap up the trading week:

Event                                     Actual      Projection     Previous

API Crude Oil Stocks              6.92M            NA              3.45M

EIA Crude Oil Stocks            -0.046M     -2.869M        -0.497M

The inventories figures came in mixed, but they were relatively consistent from last week’s values. The EIA reported a draw on supply, while the API released a significant build for the second straight week. All in all, energy traders are making an about face at the reports, with February WTI crude oil futures currently rotating inside of Thursday’s range.

WTI Crude Oil: Daily Technicals

For February WTI futures the prognosis is simple: the trend is down in concert with the traditional pattern of seasonality.

February WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
February WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

There are three levels I will have on my radar for the remainder of the session:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Current Wave Retracement, $46.62
  • Breakout Point(1): Thursday’s Low, $44.37
  • Support(1): Swing Low, $42.36

Bottom Line: At the moment, it is difficult to determine whether or not WTI is poised to breakout today. However, I have sells in the queue beneath Thursday’s low from $44.36. Using a static 1:1 risk vs reward management plan, this trade is good for a fast 8-10 ticks on a washout of short-term longs.

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