Will Crude Oil Fall in the Second Half of the Year?
Rowan Crosby • 1 min read
Crude Oil has managed to bounce back nicely in recent times after a big sell-off saw it tumble from $76 to $42.
While oil now sits above the all-important $50 level, many analysts are suggesting that oil might well see weakness coming into the second half of the year.
According to some of the big banks, over the course of the year:
- US infrastructure constraints will be reduced.
- Expiry of the OPEC-led supply agreement will also add downward pressure.
Analysts are mixed in their opinion of how far oil can run in the first half – with the ranges being from $55-$65. However most believe that the price will fade in the back half, however, the fact that there are so many geopolitical uncertainties at the moment, there is still upside risk.
The Technical Picture
The break of $50 appears to be a big one for CL. We haven’t yet had a genuine retest of that level and that appears to be bullish to me.
I think that if we break this little level at $53 after the period of consideration, that is a really bullish sign in the short-term and might be a signal for a little momentum run higher.