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50/50 Chance of a Rate Cut for the AUD/USD

According to futures markets, it appears there is little chance of the RBA raising rates in Australia anytime soon.

Futures are now pricing in a 50/50 chance of a cut in December. It is not a strong sign for the Aussie economy as sentiment is quite poor at the moment.

Weak property prices are really weighing on confidence at the moment, however, jobs do appear strong.

We get the employment report out later this week and that might give futures markets a reason to be a little more optimistic. The expectation is for 18,000 new jobs to have been created in December with the unemployment rate remaining flat at 5.1%.

That said, most analysts are predicting that rates will stay on hold until 2020.


Aussie Outlook

The AUD/USD is still holding below the major level at 0.7200 and is flat on the session. Given the US holiday, markets are really slow and volume is low.

The key support below is 0.7050 and then 0.7000.

0.7300 is R2 and the most recent highs sitting at 0.7400.

AUD/USD – 240min.
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Rowan Crosby
Asia-Pacific Analyst
Rowan Crosby is a professional futures trader from Sydney, Australia. Rowan has extensive experience trading commodities, bonds and equity futures in the Asian, European and US markets. Rowan holds a Bachelor of Finance and Economics degree and is focused heavily on Investment Finance and Quantitative Analysis.
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