Weekly Outlook, Jan 28-Feb 1 – Top 5 Economic Events this Week
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Welcome back, traders. I hope you have had an awesome weekend. The market humiliated the US dollar and it fell marginally lower at 95.73. Most of the sell-off was triggered over the uncertainties of prolonged US government shutdown. The market also reacted to a more dovish than expected ECB and the BOJ’s forecast cut, which supported the dollar.
The current week is all about fundamentals, especially the US FOMC & NFP at the top of the list. These events are too good to miss!
Top 5 Economic Events this Week
On Monday, the ECB President Mario Draghi is due to testify about the economy and monetary policy before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee in Brussels. At 14:00 (GMT), Draghi may add more insights into the current economic situation after the rate decision.
Investors are curious to know further about the risks of a recession and effect on wages. Any clues about changes to the rate outlook are likely to move the Euro.
2) BOE Gov Carney Speaks
On Monday, the BOE Governor Mark Carney is due to participate in a question and answer session, along with other MPC members, about the future of money at the Bank of England’s Future Forum in London. The speech is due at 14:30 (GMT). As we know, the United Kingdom is busy with Brexit planing, while its economy is missing the inflation targets.
The clues on upcoming monetary policy can trigger volatility in the market.
The consumer confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. For instance, you will spend more only if you are confident about your job or business. The data is due on Tuesday at 15:00 (GMT) – economists are expecting a drop in consumer confidence.
Obviously, the prolonged shutdown of the partial US government has hurt the market sentiment. The dollar is likely to stay under pressure this week.
On Wednesday at 19:00 (GMT), the Federal Reserve is due to release interest rate decision. The Fed is widely expected to keep the interest rates on hold at 2.50%.
In recent speeches, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have shown worries over the risks to global growth and have tempered the expression set by last month’s 25-basis-point policy rate increase.
In January, Fed Chair Powell repeated that view, but at the same time made it clear that if the Fed ever came to a different conclusion, it would not hesitate to change the pace of balance-sheet reductions. This FOMC is very likely to form a bearish sentiment for the US dollar throughout the week.
Back in December, the US labor market enjoyed an excellent month with 312K jobs, blowing expectations. Wages also upbeat the forecast with an increase of 0.4% m/m and 3.2% y/y. While the unemployment rate grew to 3.9%.
Newbies, the US Nonfarm employment change is one of the most awaited and watched economic data of the month. This month, the unemployment rate is expected to drop from 3.8% to 3.9%. Meanwhile, the non-farm employment change is expected to have produced only 165K jobs vs. 312K in December. Looks like the partial US government shutdown is going impact the market.
This week is going to be exciting with a large number of economic events. So, brace yourself for volatility and stay tuned to FX Leaders for updates.