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Gold Back Below 1300.0

Since April GOLD futures failed to eclipse the 1350.0 handle in late February, it has been all downhill for bullion. The last month has been dominated by bearish sentiment, with prices falling more than $50 per ounce from the highs of  February 20. Today’s sell-off has wiped out a nice weekly rally, driving prices back beneath 1300.0.

During the early going of 2019, it seemed as though institutional capital was happy to hold bullion in the midst of a stock rally. The U.S. government shutdown and concerns over trade war fallout brought considerable uncertainty to the table. Now, it looks like gold may be setting up for a prolonged bearish run.

April Gold Futures: Technical Outlook

Since today’s electronic open, the sellers have been in control of April gold. The result has been a more than $12.50 per ounce drop in value.

April Gold Futures (GC), Daily Chart
April Gold Futures (GC), Daily Chart

For the near future, there are two levels to watch:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Current Wave Retracement, 1307.2
  • Support(1): Swing Low, 1280.8

Overview: This market’s inability to find bids above the 38% retracement level (1307.2) proved to be the kiss of death for short-term long holders. Going into the Friday session, gold is in position to close the week negative.

Barring any crisis-oriented fundamental, the technicals suggest that the four-week downtrend will continue. If April gold fails to rebound by Friday’s closing bell, a test of the Swing Low (1280.8) may be in the cards for early next week.

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Shain Vernier
US Analyst
Shain Vernier has spent over 7 years in the market as a professional futures, options and forex trader. He holds a B.Sc. in Business Finance from the University of Montana. Shain's career includes stretches with several proprietary trading firms in addition to actively managing his own accounts. Before joining FX Leaders, he worked as a market analyst and financial writer.
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