Stock markets have given back all the gains today

Friday has brought an ugly Wall Street open for those long the U.S. indices. The first 45 minutes of trade has the DJIA (-232), S&P 500 SPX (-24), and NASDAQ (-67) all deep in the red. Uncertainty appears to be dominating today’s early trade, as it has since Wednesday’s FOMC Projections.

The early weakness in equities is being largely attributed to the weak European data released during the U.S. overnight. Concerns surrounding slowing global economic growth have come to the forefront and lagging U.S. manufacturing figures haven’t helped. The Markit Manufacturing PMI (March) came in at 52.5, its lowest value in 21 months.

All in all, this morning’s stock market sentiment is negative. As a result, all related futures contracts are feeling the pain.

June E-mini S&P Futures: Technical Outlook

Following a failed run at Thursday’s high, the June E-mini S&P 500 has plunged. Prices are now trending beneath 2850.00 and appear to be heading for downside support.

June E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Daily Chart
June E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES), Daily Chart

If the damage gets worse, several support levels will come into play for the near future. Here they are:

  • Support(1): 38% Retracement, 2812.75
  • Support(2): Bollinger MP, 2796.00
  • Support(3): Daily SMA, 2787.00

Bottom Line: As long as the March high of 2866.00 is the high water mark in the June E-minis, I will have buy orders in queue from 2813.25. With an initial stop at 2804.25, this trend-following play produces 36 ticks on a 1:1 risk vs reward management plan.

The 2019 uptrends in the U.S. indices remain valid. In addition, long-term fundamentals suggest that U.S. stocks are likely to move higher as the year wears on. A strategy of buying dips is appropriate, with long plays from support having a good shot at success.

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