Daily Briefing, March 29 – Big Day for British Pairs; GDP & Brexit Vote Ahead
Arslan Butt • 2 min read
Happy Friday, traders. It’s another big day for the British Pound as the UK Parliament will vote to decide on the passage of the deal triggering Article 50 with the European Union. Besides that, a series of hot economic events from the United Kingdom, Canada and the United States will remain in highlights, where the GDP and Current Account data will be most in focus.
The Greenback was poised for its most substantial gain in five months. Traders reacted positively to a bounce in the US Treasury yields and some of its opponents being knocked down by dovish signals from their own central banks. Yeah, you’re right, I’m referring to RBNZ and ECB.
Here’s what we should monitor today.
GBP – UK Final GDP q/q
The GDP figure is due on Friday at 9:30 (GMT) with a forecast of 0.2% growth which is in line with the previous value. This may leave a muted impact on the market. According to the previous release, the UK economy grew by 0.2% q/q in the last quarter of 2018, the same as the Eurozone. The final read today will likely confirm the initial one, but revisions to the annual figure are somewhat reasonable.
GBP – Current Account
The Office for National Statistics is forecast to release the current account at 9:30 (GMT). It’s a difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter. Figures are expected to show a trade deficit of 22.9 billion vs. 26.5 billion. Although it’s a negative figure, it’s most likely to place a bullish impact on the market as the trade deficit has decreased than before.
CAD – Canadian GDP
Back in December 2018, the Canadian GDP figure disappointed the market with negative growth. The Canadian economy contracted by 0.1%. We will now receive the first release for 2019 with the publication for January.
Economists are expecting a rise in Canadian economic growth by 0.1% vs. -0.1%. So, the Loonie can stay supported today.
GBP – Parliament Brexit Vote
The UK Parliament will vote to decide on the passage of the deal triggering Article 50 with the European Union.
What are the options here?
If the British Prime Minister May’s Brexit deal gets accepted next week, the European Union will allow an extension that continues till May 22. The idea is to provide the United Kingdom with a time to pass the relevant legislation.
If the deal doesn’t get accepted next week, then the UK will have until April 12 to pick a way ahead. There’s a significant amount of uncertainty encircling the British currency.
USD – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
The University of Michigan will be releasing the consumer sentiment figures at 14:00 (GMT). The US consumer sentiment is expected to remain unchanged at 97.8. The higher number is considered suitable for currency.
Good luck and stay tuned to FX Leaders for live market updates and forex trading signals!