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Daily Briefing, April 3 – Key Economic Events to Watch Today

Posted Wednesday, April 3, 2019 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The Greenback slid while the Sterling soared during the Asian session, especially after the British Prime Minister Theresa May said she would ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit deadline.

The Dollar Index that traces the strength of Greenback against a basket of other currencies fell 0.2% to 96.768 on weaker than expected durable goods orders. On Tuesday, the US Durable goods orders slipped to 0.1% vs. 0.3% growth forecast. Now worse than expected data is fueling an economic slowdown sentiment. Indeed, the Fed will be expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged.

The market is likely to remain volatile amid a set of hot economic events today. Here’s what to expect from the US ADP Non-farm payroll, ISM Non-Manufacturing, and the UK Construction PMI.

Major Economic Events to Watch Today

Eurozone – EUR

The European economy is due to release a series of economic events, which include:

Spanish Services PMI – At 7:15 (GMT), traders will monitor the Spanish PMI data which is expected to jump from 54.5 to 55.

French Final Services PMI – Beside the Spanish Services PMI, the services French Services PMI will be observed. It’s expected to remain unchanged at 48.7 vs. 48.7 previously.

German Final Services PMI – It’s scheduled with a neutral forecast of 54.9 precisely in line with the previous month’s release.

How to Trade Services PMI?

The thing is, all the Services PMI figures above 50 thresholds will be signaling an optimistic economy and investors will be buying Euros. Conversely, a drop below 50 can trigger a sell-off in the European currency pairs.

US Dollar – USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
Back in March, the US jobs report for February was a huge disappointment as just 20K positions were added to the world’s largest economy. However, wages increased by 0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y – impressive numbers.

Traders focus will remain on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change or the Advance NFP data at 12:15 (GMT) today. For your info, the ADP NFP shows an estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

In March, ADP reported a moderate gain of 183K jobs vs. 190K forecast, adding bearish pressure on the US Dollar. Its correlation with the actual Nonfarm Payroll makes this figure extra important. Traders try to predict and trade the NFP based upon ADP data, so it’s kind of essential for us to keep an eye on this data today.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
At 14:00 (GMT), the Institute for Supply Management will release the last clue of NFP. Better than expected figures are likely to increase the chances of positive NFP. In March, the statistics scored a high of 59.7 whereas a slight drop to 58.1 is expected in April.

Crude Oil Inventories
Crude Oil Inventories are one of the most critical events to trade crude oil and the Loonie. So we should keep an eye on it. It’s due to release at 14:30 (GMT) with a forecast of -0.7M draw in inventories.

Summing Up – Fellas, the market will be closely watching the ADP figures to determine the NFP which is due on Friday. I’m looking to take quick intra-day trades instead of swing ones to avoid anti-trend positions.

Have a profitable day!

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