The EUR/USD had a good close to the week and is now pushing above the 1.1300 level for the first time for the month.

The EUR/USD appears to have already priced in the dovish ECB moves over the last few months and as the week rolls on there will be a few data points worth watching.

The real key economic news will come on Thursday, with German Manufacturing. This is a number that has been on the slide and there are concerns around an overall contraction in the entire sector. The various PMI releases will give us a better indication of the overall feeling.

CPI is due out Wednesday and the reality is that the weak reading of 1.4% will remain around the mark for the foreseeable future as there is limited upside pressure on inflation.

With such a weak result the expectation is that the ECB will be releasing their LTRO’s at a negative interest rate which is a very dovish move in reality.

Technical Levels

The 1.1300 level now becomes the make or break support this week. If it can hold, we might get further grinding upside. If it can’t, then I suspect we are looking at another retrace.