The USD is Steady

It has been a whipsaw day for June USD Index futures. Following strong early-session action, the Greenback has reversed course, falling deep into the red. The robust U.S. Jobs Report has done little to boost sentiment toward the dollar as the markets continue to digest Wednesday’s FED Interest Rate Decision.

Following Jerome Powell’s presser on Wednesday afternoon, the CME FEDWatch Index adjusted the consensus outlook toward FOMC policy. Expectations toward an end of year rate cut were revised down for September, October, and December. At least for now, any move in the Federal Funds Target rate is viewed as being unlikely ahead of 2020.

June USD Index Futures Plummet From Intraday Highs

Since this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release, it has been all downhill for the Greenback. Subsequently, the June USD Index is trending heavily to the bear on the 15, 30 and 60-minute timeframes.

June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

If the damage gets worse, these two support levels may come into play:

  • Support(1): Bollinger MP, 97.065
  • Support(2): Daily SMA, 96.755

Overview: As we are currently seeing in equities and WTI crude oil, investors are anxious to buy dips in the USD Index. This was evidenced back on FED-day, when rates briefly fell beneath the key 97.000 level before rebounding.

At press time (11:30 AM EST), it appears that bidders may get another chance to buy in from downside support. If we see the June USD Index continue on its intraday bearish path, then a potential long position may set up from the 97.000-96.750 area. Today’s close will tell the tale; if rates settle above 97.000, then a bullish bias will be appropriate going into next Monday’s opening bell.

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