WTI Crude Fails At Key 38% Fibonacci Level

Posted Friday, May 10, 2019 by
Shain Vernier • 1 min read

June WTI crude oil futures continue to trade in this week’s consolidation zone in the vicinity of $62.00. Following a test of $62.50 during the U.S. overnight, prices have fallen lower. At this point, it appears that any directional move in WTI is going to have to wait at least until Monday.

If you are trading WTI crude oil, it is going to be important to monitor the June/July contract volume levels throughout next week. Today has featured heavy interest in the June issue, with over 475,000 contracts already changing hands. The volume ratio from June to July is currently about 5/1. This will change as next week progresses, with traded volumes becoming diluted by Wednesday or Thursday.

June WTI Futures Test A Key 38% Fibonacci Resistance Level

WTI crude oil has certainly not been spared from the angst of U.S./China trade war tensions. This market continues to tighten ― is it ever going to break?!

June WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart
June WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch ahead of today’s closing bell:

  • Resistance(1): 38% Current Wave, $62.55
  • Resistance(2): Bollinger MP, $62.57

Bottom Line: The 38% Current Wave Retracement at $62.55 is going to be a key level moving forward in this market. As long as it holds, one must maintain a short-term bearish bias.

That being said, a bullish breakout is very possible above this area in June WTI crude oil futures. For the rest of the trading day, I will have buy orders queued up from $62.50. Using a tight 1:1 risk vs reward ratio, a quick scalp above the current intrasession high should produce a fast 5-8 ticks.

All in all, it has been an ultra-tight week for WTI crude. Hopefully, next Monday or Tuesday will give us a better idea of which way this market is headed for the remainder of May.

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