Forex Signals Brief for May 13: Waiting on a Chinese Response
Rowan Crosby • 2 min read
The US-China trade negotiations have been the only thing people have been talking about over the last week and we will all be waiting for the next act this week.
Interesting, as the deadline came and went on Friday, stocks didn’t seem too fazed and actually rallied into the close. However, we have opened up back in the red in Asian trade in a worrying sign for negotiations.
This week, we will be waiting to hear how China officially responds. Will they look to take more countermeasures or will they be wanting to head straight back to the negotiating table?
From all reports, the Chinese manufacturers are already struggling to cope with a 10% tariff and a move to 25% will clearly hurt. Despite the fact that it will take months to really implement and flow through. That said, many are now looking to pass the costs directly onto the US consumer, so that might very well be a thorn in President Trump’s side.
Elsewhere this week, the data is a little thinner than previous weeks. Retail sales are the main focus out of the US this week, while the EUR/USD has a few major data points including German GDP and Eurozone CPI. While the AUD/USD will wait on employment data along with the GBP/USD.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished the week with six wins from 12 signals for a 50% strike rate.
NZD/USD – Active Signal
The NZD/USD is still holding below the 0.6600 level, but only just. The fact that price really hasn’t been able to bounce all that much as the USD has weakened, makes me think there is still some selling pressure here.
Gold – Active Signal
GOLD has been pushing higher and there was a fair bit of attention on the yellow metal on Friday as the official talks came to an end. So far price has been pushing higher and we are in another long position, in a trade that has been a good one recently.
BTC has seemingly defied all-comers at the moment and is smashing through resistance left, right and centre.
So far price has reclaimed the $7,000 level with price tagging $7,500, before settling below the prior in early Asian trade.
There is no doubt Bitcoin is bullish at the moment, but when price gets this vertical, to me that is a sign of a pullback. Just like when a hot stock is getting ready to reverse, this chart is looking very overextended now.